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Blain: "I Am Convinced The Debt Markets Are About To Blow Up"

October 22, 2019

Blain's Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Shard Capital

 

“If you wake up on a Casper mattress, work out with a Peloton before breakfast, Uber to your desk at a WeWork, order DoorDash for lunch, take a Lyft home, and get dinner through Postmates, you’ve interacted with seven companies that will collectively lose nearly $14 billion this year.”

 

It’s a big week for markets with the ECB meeting, some critical Q3 stock numbers and a host of things to worry about in terms of economic releases and the continuing slowing of the Chinese economy. Its all critical stuff for the bond market – which I reckon is a ticking time-bomb. But more about that later… For stock markets, the quote this morning sums it up – the mood is changing: forget the disruptive tech unicorns and focus on fundamentals. But, first up we really can’t ignore the Brexit mess in the UK.  Saturday’s SNAFU gives investors another chance to load up on Sterling.  At some point Brexit will be fixed.  It might be messy.

 

I am sure foreign readers are wondering how the Mother of All Parliaments is making such a Horlicks of the Brexit negotiations.  It really doesn’t look good does it?   On the other hand, it does show the vibrancy of our political process, and the fact individuals can force it to change. It’s just a shame so many of these individuals seen to be self-seeking egotistical numpties of the worst kind – but even Oliver Letwin has a mother that probably loves him. 

 

The reason Brexit is so messy is simple. It boils down to weak government – which is a recent thing here in the UK.  As soon as the Tories lost their working majority in Theresa May’s ill-advised and badly conceived 2017 general election, the process fell hostage to individuals thinking they could save the country from its misguided referendum decision, and political calculators cynically working out how best to way-lay and embarrass the May and now Johnson Government. (Easy for the Labour party to chop/change policies and promise Brexit one-day and a referendum the next – why? Because nobody cares about them..)

 

FULL REPORT

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